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John Adams Blog

The blog of The Antient and Honourable John Adams Society, Minnesota's Conservative Debating Society www.johnadamssociety.org

Tuesday, June 05, 2007

Fred Thompson Leads Prediction Market

Intrade.com has a market for futures on presidential party nominations. The basic idea is that you buy and sell contracts which pay $1 only if a certain event happens. The contract "Fred Thompson wins the Republican Nomination for President" last sold for 26.1 cents, just beating the equivalent contract for Giuliani (24.8 cents) and Romney (22.2 cents). McCain is in fourth and his price has been falling to 16.2 cents. No one else sells for more than 3 cents. (Which makes sense since the top four add up to 89.3 cents. So the market will give you 9-1 odds that anyone outside the top four will win the nomination.)

People are paying real money for these contracts: putting their money where their mouths are. And a non-declared candidate is winning? Hmmm.

(For what it's worth, I would be happy with any of the top three.)]

Blogger Sloanasaurus said...

I thought Rudy did a great job tonight. A Thompson/Rudy battle would be good. The problem with Thompson is that Rudy has a much more successful track record at running a large government organization. Thompson won't be able to distinguish his experience from Hillary.

I like Thompson, but what more does he offer than Rudy other than the abortion record? Rudy in the end is the more experienced leader.

At this point I would be shocked if Obama gets the Dem nod. That guy is so inexperienced. Can you imagine him going up against Rudy? Rudy would be able to constantly bash Obama as a novice (which he is). It would be great fun.

11:34 PM, June 05, 2007  

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