Iraq and Vietnam

The Associated Press is reporting that Al Qaeda's No. 2, Aymen Al-Zawahiri, is comparing the current status in Iraq to the last years in Vietnam:

In a letter to his top deputy in Iraq, Al Qaeda's No. 2 leader said the
United States "ran and left their agents" in Vietnam and the jihadists must have a plan ready to fill the void if the Americans suddenly leave Iraq. "Things
may develop faster than we imagine," Aymen al-Zawahiri wrote in a letter
to his top deputy in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi "The aftermath of the collapse of American power in Vietnam — and how they ran and left their agents — is noteworthy. ... We must be ready starting now."

The obvious problem with Al-Zawahiri's analysis of history (and the AP's failure to note) is that the war in Vietnam post Tet was largely a conventional war between US and allied forces vs. Regular North Vietnam troops (NVA) backed by the USSR (China had fallen out of the picture by the early 1970s). Al Qeada has nothing in Iraq to even approach the power and resources of the NVA. Remember, the NVA had hundreds of Tanks, Soviet supplied fighter jets, thousands of anti-aircraft batteries and a million men in Arms, not to mention the safety of North Vietnam. The NVA was regularly shooting down American fighter jets. Al Qaeda is lucky for the few helicopters it has managed to shoot down with small arms fire. Further, the NVA was being constantly supplied and propped up by the Soviet Union. Al Qeada has no superpower to supply it. Al-Zawahiri is living in a pipe dream if he thinks Al Qaeada has the chance to topple a Shia/Kurd controlled government in Iraq (even if US forces left tomorrow).

It sounds like the final groans of a dying movement.

UPDATE: Here is a link to the Al-Zawahiri letter.