Predictions for 2006

Here are my predictions for the Elections.

Minnesota Governor: Pawlenty wins by 4 points - this despite the scribbler staying at home. I think Pawlenty has always been ahead.

Mn-6: Bachmann by 13 pts. Wetterling gets crushed. People are motivated to vote for Bachmann more than Kennedy and Pawlenty.

Senate: Unfortuantley, I have to predict a Klobachar victory by 4 points. Minnesota is still a blue state. The victory margin will be small because noone is very enthusiastic about voting for Hatch or Klobachar. Kennedy would have won in any other year.

United States House:

I think Democrats will win 19 seats. Enough to take control barely. However, many of the seats will be won by conservative democrats or very weak democrats who will either vote mostly with the Republicans or be defeated in 2008. Pelosi will have trouble being elected speaker... and eventually her bid fails because of new members being worried already about 2008 (they don't want to have voted for Pelosi).

I think republicans win one of either Delay's or Foley's seat.

Because everyone will know that the Dems grip on the House will be coming to an end in 2008, it will accomplish nothing. Dems will have one legislative success - the minimum wage, which will also include a compromise on the estate tax on the same bill.

Republicans will re-elect Boehner as minority leader. The rest of the leadership will go to reformers.

U.S. Senate - I predict the Republicans lose a net 3 seats:

Burns wins in Montana. He has the late election momentum in a Red State.

Michael Steele wins in Maryland in a squeaker and gets a suprising 33% of the black vote; Cardin just doesn't motivate people enough.

Webb beats Allen in Virgina. Except that Webb becomes the Democrat's Lincoln Chafee.

Talent wins in Missouri after a recount and various legal challenges.

Corker wins by 8 pts in Tenn.

Menendez wins in New Jersey by 6 pts on low turnout. Menendez is a crappy candidate, but so is Kean. No one is motivated to to vote for Kean.

Chaffee loses.

Dewine loses in Ohio.

Santorum loses, but by only a few.

Lieberman wins.

People forget that Bush is president on Nov 8, 2006. The 2008 elections become all about tax cuts. Too many democrats are on record saying they want to "roll back the Bush tax cuts." When people find out this includes the $1000 per child tax credit, people get pissed.

NOTE: The above predictions are based on what I have seen in public polls. I have a gut feeling, however, that the polls this year are junk because of the maturity of caller ID and cell phones among certain segments of voters (i.e. younger-middle aged married people with kids screen all their calls and therefore a least likely to be in a poll).