Futures de Stebbing

Reuters reports today:

U.S. short-term interest rate futures barely moved on Monday, leaving expectations for Federal Reserve rate policy for the rest of 2006 unchanged after a report on factory activity came in weaker than forecast.

Bigger gains in deferred futures showed the market is confident the Fed will start trimming rates in the first few months of 2007. [emphasis added]

Nearly two months ago I predicted an interest rate cut within 6 months. That would put me about exactly on the money. If Bernanke had listened to me sooner, we wouldn't even need to cut. Oh, it hurts to be right.