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John Adams Blog

The blog of The Antient and Honourable John Adams Society, Minnesota's Conservative Debating Society www.johnadamssociety.org

Thursday, September 28, 2006

Senate in the Balance

According to the New York Times the Democrats have new hopes for taking the Senate. To support this argument they cite the new trouble for George Allen and his supposed racial slurs. Have things really changed? Apparently, the New York Times failed to site a new poll from Survey USA taken the last few days, showing Allen up 5 points. The same lead Allen had in early September. The Times also states that Harold Ford in Tennessee is a viable challenger. The same poll SurveyUSA, is the only poll that had Ford up. The Times also acknowledges that New Jersey is in play for Republicans, where Kean has had a lead in the polls since August.

If Allen's race is now considered a toss up, then so is Dewine, Burns, Chafee and Steele, who all three are behind by about 5 points according to Real Clear Politics. The Times wants us to think there are 6 toss-ups.

The only way for the Dems to win, is to take 6 seats. Under a reasonable view of the current polls, one would say that of current Republican seats four lean democratic: Santorum, Chafee, Dewine, and Burns. Two are toss-ups: Talent and Corker, and one dem seat, Kean, leans Republican. If Dems win all the toss ups this gives them only 5 seats. That is essentially exactly where all the predictions were a months ago... so how is the Times analysis any different?

My prediction - a lot less will change than people think....Republicans lose in Ohio, Montana, and Pennsylvania. Nothing else changes.