2002 Polls
Some Zogby Election Polls from 2002 via instapundit - in the week prior to the election. Some notables:
Poll:
Mondale 50
Coleman 45
Actual:
Coleman 50
Mondale 47
I remember this poll well. It was taken even after the Wellstone funeral. The Strib polls all had Mondale up big.
Poll Colorado:
Strickland 53
Allard 44
Actual:
Allard 51
Strikland 46
For a poll to be this wrong, something has to be seriously wrong with the poll methodology. How ridiculous.
Maybe comparisons like this would mean little if the actual vs. poll results were all over the map. But, they are not. The polls consistently underperform the republicans and overperform the democrats.
Poll:
Mondale 50
Coleman 45
Actual:
Coleman 50
Mondale 47
I remember this poll well. It was taken even after the Wellstone funeral. The Strib polls all had Mondale up big.
Poll Colorado:
Strickland 53
Allard 44
Actual:
Allard 51
Strikland 46
For a poll to be this wrong, something has to be seriously wrong with the poll methodology. How ridiculous.
Maybe comparisons like this would mean little if the actual vs. poll results were all over the map. But, they are not. The polls consistently underperform the republicans and overperform the democrats.
posted by Sloanasaurus | 10/19/2006 08:52:00 AM
The Zogby poll this week shows Klobachar up by 7 points. If you apply the 8 point error in the zogby poll from 2002, you get Kennedy up by 1.
Unfortunately, there is a large segment of the population who have been brainwashed into believing that polls represent the 'real' truth, and that if actual ballot counts don't reflect the same numbers, then there must be fraud or disenfranchisement. Speaking of fraud, I occasionally flip on Air America (AM 950), just to get a good laugh, and to reaffirm my conviction that there should be some sort of intelligence test before you’re allowed to vote or procreate. Over the last couple days, one of the hot topics has been the “Voter Purge” that is/was going on in, you guessed it, Ohio. To listen to the callers and the hosts, you’d think Stalin was running the board of elections there (when we all know it’s really Karl Rove). What many of these misinformed listeners don’t realize is that the maintenance of voter registration records (including removing non-active entries) is mandated by Federal law for the specific purpose of preventing voting irregularities. One caller claimed that a recent poll for the Ohio governor’s race showed the Democratic candidate Strickland ahead of the Republican Blackwell by 20 points, and that the ‘purging’ is entirely one-sided (i.e. only Dems are being removed) as an attempt to once again steal an election. The caller went on to say that if Blackwell wins, they better get ready to call in the National Guard.
On my first day of Behavioral Statistics in college we learned how to get "4 out of 5 Dentists" to agree and correlate everything to cause or cure cancer. Needless to say, 94.7% of all statistics are made up on the spot to serve whatever purpose deemed necessary at the time.
There is only one poll in politics to pay attention to, the election!
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