Civil War in Iraq
Why is this a surprise? I predicted civil war in Iraq a year ago, asking why we hadn't tried to split up the three disparate groups (Shiites, Sunis and Kurds) into states, even calling for a new Kurdistan. Are we really to believe the administration didn't think civil war was a possibility until now?
posted by Scribbler de Stebbing | 8/03/2006 08:05:00 PM
If there is a "civil war" in Iraq, it will not be among Kurds, Sunnis, and Shia. The civil war will be amongst the shia - the Iran faction represented by Sadr vs. the non-Iran faction, which currently controls the Malaki government. It will be the same conflict that occurred with Sadr in Najef in 2003.
In the end all these wars are proxies with Iran. We should wait to wage the sadr fight until the israel conflict is ended. At that point it will be easier to get the other arab countries to back us in the conflict with Iran.
The Sunnis and the Kurds will end up supporting the non-iran faction.
The violence so far has been among the Shiites and the Sunnis, possibly with some outside terrorists assisting. Whether Iran is stirring something up with the Shiites, I cannot say. But this civil war has been brewing since the establishment of the new government in Iraq, and I contend that trying to force the Sunnis and Shia to get along under one government is attempting to mix oil and water.
Look, I am no Cindy Sheehan; no peacenik am I. I am also not blaming Bush for going in there. I was as gung-ho as the rest of you and as thrilled when we nailed Saddam. But we're just not going to get anywhere further in Iraq. We're trying to force something that will never happen. Were it up to me, I'd wall off that whole portion of the world and let them sort out their own problems. Throw up the Star Wars shield, ensure our own fuel supply, and we're covered. The entire Middle East is a loser for us.
There won't be a civil war in Iraq between the sunni and shia. The sunni only represent 15% of the people. How could the sunni expect to win a civil war? Further, one of the purposes in abandoning the old Iraq army was to end sunni domination of the civil institutions. Which appears to have worked, even though many argue (like Hillary Clinton) that disbandoning the army was a mistake.
Don't despair. It will be a long fight. We are battling an ideology. They are battling an ideology too. If democracy takes root in that area, conservative Islam is dead.
Iraq is an emerging democracy, with a lot of problems. We should continue to actively support it just as we did Italy, Greece, and Germany after World War II.
Post a Comment