The Coming Election

Bush's approval ratings are low. Some say it is because of Iraq, or Katrina, or gas prices, etc... But, Iraq has been trouble before and the approval ratings were not this low. I think the ratings are staying low for one reason - immigration policy. A good portion of the Republican base is pissed at Bush about immigration and they will remain pissed for the visable future. So much so they will not offer support to Bush.

For a while I thought this split was bad news for the party and the 2006 elections. However, now I think just the opposite. So far the biggest opponent to Bush on immigration has been the Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives. Immigration motivates the base and the base will get out and vote if they see the Republicans in Congress fighting on this issue. In contrast, Democrats are motivated very little by immigration. They may oppose a wall on the border, but they don't go crazy over it (as they do with Bush hatred). Therefore, besides Bush hatred, what is there for Democrats to get motivated about for 2006. As in the past, Bush hatred will not be enough.

I think the Republican base will get out and vote over immigration and that Republicans will do quite well in November.

Message from Democrats to immigrants: Stop protesting immigration and start complaining about Iraq, Bush, and Katrina.