Lamenting the Gang of 14

The Associated Press laments about the "fracturing" of the Gang of 14 and says it will hurt Democrats.

The 14 centrists who averted a Senate breakdown over judicial nominees last spring are showing signs of splintering on President Bush's latest nominee for the Supreme Court. That is weakening the hand of Democrats opposed to conservative judge Samuel Alito and enhancing his prospects for confirmation.

The AP implies that the break-up is because Mike Dewine and Lindsey graham already say they will go "nuclear" if a filibuster is waged.

The AP, like many Americans do not understand what the original deal was all about. Remember...only two republicans have to decide that a nominee is not an "extraordinary circumstance." Because the term "extraordinary circumstance" has such a plain meaning, it becomes almost politically impossible to apply it to any nominee.

There will be no filibuster.

This deal was really designed to save face for the Democrat party - particularly the moderates in the party who rightly fear Democratic special interest groups. As we all know, the Democratic special interest groups are far more powerful in terms of funds and support than Republican special interest groups. This deal allows moderate democrats (and moderate republicans) to both vote for and against a Supreme Court nominee. The moderate democrats can vote to end the filibuster on principal, while still voting against the nominee (even though the nominee will pass). The moderate Republicans can say they are willing to go nuclear, without ever having to actually vote that way..... It's simple politics, and it worked. The seven Democrats were hailed as heroes by the press and liberals, even though the deal ended the filibuster.

My prediction: Alito passes the Senate 57-43

He loses Republicans: Snowe, Collins, Chafee.
He gains Democrats Byrd, Nelson, two guys from Dakotas, and Landrieu.