Iraq Notes and Predictions

The Constitutional Referendum vote last week is the beginning of the end of major American troop involvement in Iraq. The elections in Decemeber will give the Iraqi government the legitimacy to sustain itself in battling the ongoing insurgency, which may continue to rage for the coming future. The Iraqi troops will carry on the fight with the support of the Iraqi people.

However, without major superpower support, the Insurgency will eventually die out. Expect troops to start withdrawing on December 16. Expect our force to number less than 50,000 by October 2006 (unless a revolution in Syria or Iran requires action).

We will be in Iraq for many years in the future as a trip-wire against foreign invasion and against any military coup (as we did in S. Korea for years), but with a much smaller more invisible force, which is not engaged.

The victory in Iraq is also the beginning of the end of the Al Qaeda movement. With defeat in Iraq and no other victories since the defeat of the Soviets in Afghanistan, recruiting will fall off and eventually die out... at least until the next great revolutionary ideological movement whatever that may be (perhaps eco-terrorists).

Historians will eventually come to agreement that the strategic turning point of the conflict was the brilliant political and military defeat of Sadr in Najef in April, 2004. Once Sadr was defeated, we secured the support of at least 80% of the population, which was verified when the Constitution was passed last week. All other tactical battles that followed should be considered part of the eventual mop-up operations of the insurgency.

History may also judge Iraq as the American war where we gained the most for the least cost in both casualties and money (save the Revolution).