Media Frenzy over Casualties
The Media and Cindy Sheehan are preparing to celebrate the 2000 casualty in Iraq.
While, I don't belittle the deaths of those who have died (they are all.. at least most heros), I personally expected 5,000 deaths in the war. I expected that the "insurgency" would have been a high intesive guerilla war by Saddam that would have been waged for months in Baghdad and other cities immediatly after the fall of Saddam's major armies. Instead the insurgency turned into a low level conflict that has gone on for a longer period. The low level conflict, however, has changed its character over time. Recall that a year ago, much of the news was about local Iraqi forces being attacked and defeated by roving bands of organized terrorists. Those stories don't occur anymore. Instead, the only thing that occurs is the suicide bomber and the roadside bomb. Deadly, but not enough to take over a government. The terrorists are no longer able to make any real tactical gains. The only war that remains is the war at home.
A great example of how things have changed is the famous airport road to baghdad. Last year the danger of the airport road was widely cited by the media as a prime example about how Iraq is out of control and in chaos. I haven't heard much about the road lately... that is because its no longer the highway of death.. instead it's now a normal road with bustling commerce.
We should remember that in most wars, the casualties increase as the war nears its end. Generally this is due to the logical theory and historical reality that both sides sides are engaging in ever closing quarters (the defender is holding their last piece of real estate and in turn throws in its final reserves).
Who knows if that will play out in Iraq...
While, I don't belittle the deaths of those who have died (they are all.. at least most heros), I personally expected 5,000 deaths in the war. I expected that the "insurgency" would have been a high intesive guerilla war by Saddam that would have been waged for months in Baghdad and other cities immediatly after the fall of Saddam's major armies. Instead the insurgency turned into a low level conflict that has gone on for a longer period. The low level conflict, however, has changed its character over time. Recall that a year ago, much of the news was about local Iraqi forces being attacked and defeated by roving bands of organized terrorists. Those stories don't occur anymore. Instead, the only thing that occurs is the suicide bomber and the roadside bomb. Deadly, but not enough to take over a government. The terrorists are no longer able to make any real tactical gains. The only war that remains is the war at home.
A great example of how things have changed is the famous airport road to baghdad. Last year the danger of the airport road was widely cited by the media as a prime example about how Iraq is out of control and in chaos. I haven't heard much about the road lately... that is because its no longer the highway of death.. instead it's now a normal road with bustling commerce.
We should remember that in most wars, the casualties increase as the war nears its end. Generally this is due to the logical theory and historical reality that both sides sides are engaging in ever closing quarters (the defender is holding their last piece of real estate and in turn throws in its final reserves).
Who knows if that will play out in Iraq...
posted by Sloanasaurus | 10/23/2005 11:28:00 PM
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