Impact on the Iraqi Economy

There is one thig most of us are certain of regarding Iraq, that is we really do not know what is really going on in Iraq other than specific reporting of specific events. Further, we no nothing of what the average Iraqi is thinking. Perhaps, however, we can gleam something from Iraqi's economic activity. Consider this blurb from the Washington Post today:

A sign of how this [America's] resolve to stay the course is playing out in the minds of some Iraqis comes from the local real estate market. An Iraqi businessman was negotiating several months ago to sell a prime piece of commercial real estate in central Baghdad. He had tentatively agreed on a price with a Kuwaiti investor, who planned someday to build an electronics superstore on the 9,850-square-foot property. But after President Bush was reelected in November, the Iraqi jacked up the price 25 percent. The prospect that a reelected Bush administration would stay and fight -- and ultimately stabilize Iraq -- had instantly made his property more valuable.

From this story and others we hear that many Iraqi's are waiting to see who wins. Nevertheless, In the mind of the Iraqi above, an insurgent defeat is at least worth an additional 25% in profits to him. Such basic economics can be a powerful predictor as to where the minds of Iraqi's truly lie.